Phase III of Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations In The Usace: National Expansion Pathfinder

Since 2014, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has been engaged in a multi-agency research and development effort called Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) which is exploring how advances in weather prediction and observations can inform operations and policy decisions at federal, state and local water management agencies with the collaborative engagement and support of researchers, engineers, operators and stakeholders. FIRO represents a new phase of water management for USACE wherein forecast information can now be used for planning future operations, a significant change from the decades-long policy of operating solely to “water on the ground.” Phase I of FIRO developed a process for assessing the viability of FIRO at the initial pilot reservoir, Lake Mendocino in northern California. Phase II, which completes in FY23, explored transferability of viability assessments to additional pilot sites. The lessons learned from the application of FIRO to all the pilots was also used to develop a FIRO screening process that results in an index of FIRO suitability for a portfolio of dams to identify promising candidates for full FIRO viability assessments. The FIRO R&D effort has now entered Phase III, the National Expansion Pathfinder, and over the next five years, will consist of the following major efforts: 1) National forecast skill assessment and improvement campaign which will include a continued major investment in Atmospheric River (AR) and other storm type improvements that have yielded significant benefits to date; 2) Completion of viability assessments begun in Phase II to support planned Water Control Manual (WCM) updates at those reservoirs; 3) Explore application of FIRO to systems of dams by conducting a full FIRO viability assessment on the Willamette Valley (OR) system of dams (14 dams in total); 4) Conduct a full viability assessment for a system of 8+ dams in another region nationally where different storm types (in addition to ARs) are key to heavy rain and flooding (e.g. tropical storms/hurricanes, long-lived thunderstorm cluster, Nor’Easters, etc.); 5) Conduct full viability assessments on two single dams in other regions nationally; and 6) Apply the FIRO screening process to the USACE portfolio of dams (~700 dams) to obtain a FIRO suitability index to prioritize future FIRO viability assessment efforts. Lessons learned from FIRO Phases I and II will be presented along with plans for how Phase III will be carried out over the next five years.